Market Predictions: April Week-4
3rd Edition
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At Sov.ai Research we empower investors with rich data and analytics. Our offerings include insightful newsletters and an easy-to-use Python SDK. Enjoy this week’s free newsletter! These signals were already available by Sunday in the data product.
If you are interested in working with us to develop an internal agentic finance project, get in touch at, we are happy to share testimonials:
Financial Health:
PEGA demonstrates strong financial stability with high Cash Flow (CF: 13) and Liquidity (LIQ: 41) scores, positioning it for medium-term growth despite recent stock performance.
GLPG exhibits concerning financial metrics, particularly in Profitability (-48) and Solvency (25), indicating deteriorating health compared to industry peers.
Insider Flow Pressure:
HD and ESQ present promising buying opportunities in the Consumer Cyclical and Financial Services sectors, respectively, with ESQ showing a notable flow prediction change of 25.71.
PIII and CAT show significant selling pressures, with CAT demonstrating a concerning flow prediction change of -43.41 in the Industrials sector.
Short Interest Analysis:
PIII is heavily overshorted (+17.8% change) at 88.5% vs expected 39.2%, making it a potential short squeeze candidate.
VRM's declining short interest (-13.8% change) suggests bearish trends, while SANG and CUB indicate shifting short volumes that could impact market movements.
Earnings Surprise Prediction:
BOLD is likely to exceed earnings expectations with a 50.8% likelihood of positive surprise, whereas SAR faces substantial downside risk with a -50.9% probability.
Breakout Prediction:
K shows strong potential for upward price movement, while ALXO and CWCO indicate possible downward pressures.
Sentiment Modelling:
BVFL experiences the most positive news sentiment with a 62.151 change in score, contrasted by SASR, which faces significant negative media coverage with a -65.306 change.
This information is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All content is provided "as is" without warranties, and may not suit your personal circumstances or financial objectives.
Financial Ratio Radar
This is a financial early-warning system that monitors changes in ratios to identify critical positive and negative trends in companies' relative performance. It focuses on 8 key areas:
Composite (Comp): Combines all 6 measures into one number
Cash Flow (CF): Change in how well the company manages its cash
Efficiency (EF): Change in how well they use their resources
Liquidity (LIQ): Change in how easily they can pay short-term bills
Profitability (Prof): Change in how much money they're making
Solvency (Solv): Change in how well they can handle their debts
Valuation (Value): Change in how fair their stock price is
Factor (Fac): A measure of statistical change (can ignore)
YOU CAN SORT THE COLUMNS
We supply 650+ of the the largest positive and negative moving ticker ratios from the week.
PEGA demonstrated strong financial health with high scores across multiple metrics, particularly in CF (13) and Liquidity (41), outperforming peers in overall financial stability. However, VRT looks like a better long target considering its lack of price movement.
GLPG showed concerning financial metrics, with notably weak scores in Profitability (-48) and Solvency (25), indicating deteriorating financial health compared to industry peers. However, AMBP and TPH looks like better short targets, considering their inverse price movements.
Key Trends to Watch:
Positive: Companies improving in both Cash Flow and Profits (top right of the plot) often make great investments—they’re getting better at making and retaining money. VRT is showing up once again.
Negative: Companies struggling with both Cash Flow and Profits (bottom left) indicate potential issues.
Insider Flow Pressure
This model forecasts insider trading behavior, the idea is to predict when insiders will buy and sell stocks and to ‘front-run’ them. This model self-improves over time using machine learning. The tables focus on the top 20 stocks with the highest buying pressure and the top 20 stocks with the highest selling pressure.
Shows how a stock's predicted pressure compares to similar companies, ranked as a percentage
HD shows the most promising flow prediction indicating a potential buying opportunity within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
PIII has the most concerning flow prediction suggesting significant selling pressure in the Healthcare sector.
Looking at the change in a prediction from one week to another gives you a second-order output that is often a better leading indicator to stock price movements.
ESQ shows a promising change in flow prediction of 25.71, indicating a potential buying opportunity within the Financial Services sector.
CAT shows a concerning change in flow prediction of -43.41, suggesting significant selling pressure in the Industrials sector.
Short Interest Analysis
We identify stocks whose short interest significantly deviates from comparable companies, refreshed every two weeks. The table focuses on the top and bottom 60 overshorted stocks. Red is undershorted and Blue is overshorted
PIII is heavily overshorted (+17.8% change) with 88.5% vs expected 39.2% - potential squeeze candidate. Very interesting that it was twice mentioned (institutional, and overshorted above)
VRM shows declining short interest (-13.8% change) at 11.0% vs expected 61.1% - this is bearish given that future shorts could catch on.
By the time the short-interest file becomes available, the market may have already reacted. Monitoring changes in short volume, however, could provide an earlier indication of shifts in short sentiment. Displays top and bottom 150 stocks by short volume ratio changes.
SANG shows rising short volume (+82.8% change) to 99.2% vs previous 16.4% and is a potentially concerning trend.
CUB has declining short volume (-60.2% change) to 2.1% vs previous 62.3% and could signal covering with upside potential.
Earnings Surprise Prediction
Predicts earnings surprise for companies reporting in the next two weeks. By anticipating unexpected earnings results, you can position yourself ahead of market movements.
The table only shows company that are reporting in the next two weeks from the date indicated at the top of the table.
The earnings surprise predictions are bounded between -50% and +50% to filter out statistical outliers and maintain focus on meaningful variations.
BOLD is predicted to potentially outperform expectations with a 50.8% likelihood of earnings surprise. The consensus EPS estimate is $-0.68 for the quarter ending 2025-03-30.
SAR shows potential downside risk with a -50.9% earnings surprise probability. Analysts expect EPS of $0.77 for the quarter ending 2025-03-01.
Breakout Prediction
Using machine learning models, we track the predicted change in price breakouts and slope. The implication of a change is that a stock has become more or less likely to go up in price. We deliver the 80 tickers with the largest and smallest predicted changes in breakout and slope.
K shows the strongest breakout prediction signal, suggesting potential upward movement. Looks like a M&A false positive.
ALXO displays the weakest breakout prediction signal, indicating possible downward pressure.
GEN demonstrates the largest positive change in breakout prediction, suggesting improving momentum.
CWCO shows the largest negative change in breakout prediction, indicating deteriorating momentum.
AFBI exhibits the steepest positive change in breakout slope, suggesting accelerating upward momentum.
GBDC shows the steepest negative change in breakout slope, indicating accelerating downward pressure.
Sentiment Modelling
Tracking news-based sentiment for individual companies allows us to aggregate sentiment to the sectorial level. We first deliver the 280 tickers with the largest and smallest predicted changes in sentiment. The aggregated data is then presented on a sectorial and thematic basis.
News sentiment for BVFL articles was most positive this week with a 62.151 change in sentiment score, suggesting favorable coverage.
Meanwhile, SASR faced the most negative news sentiment shift of -65.306, indicating negative media coverage.
The chart above tracks the sentiment at a sectorial level which is helpful to assess weekly sectorial sentiment shifts. An increasing percentile indicates improving sentiment for a given sector/theme relative to others.
We also track numerous themes that we aggreagate in a handful of main themes, the detailed themes are available in the SDK. An increasing percentile indicates improving sentiment for a given sector/theme relative to others.
Congressional Trading Tracker
This tool tracks filings and records in both the House and Senate, based on the premise that members of Congress may be more informed than the average investor. The table shows trades performed in a given week.
Consumer Financial Complaints
We investigate recent changes in risk for financial firms based on complaints received in the latest week available. We deliver all the tickers that experienced a complaint this week with their change in risk. Please confirm the ticker-company name label, the mapping is still in beta and will improve over time.
The total risk rating is an ML-derived score measuring potential company liability based on complaint severity rather than volume.
DHX received 5 consumer complaints in the preceding week, with a concerning rise in financial risk of 9.67 points and a notably high culpability score of 96.46.
Despite 6 consumer complaints, CRMT shows significant improvement with financial risk dropping 12.82 points, while maintaining a customer grievance score of 19.08.
Government Spending
This data tracks recent government contract announcements. Given that the government accounts for over 40% of national expenditures, these contracts are an important source of revenue for many companies and are a reliable predictor of quarterly revenue. We deliver all the tickers with new government contracts for the associated week.
Size indicates the size of the contract in USD millions. Obligation is the contractual amount the government ought to pay the company.
Awards corresponds to the number of contracts awarded in the associated week. Previous indicates the number of contracts previously awarded to the same company.
Corporate lobbying tracker
Lobbyists have important roles to play in the American political system and are often responsible for the passage of bills and implementation of policies.
Anomaly corresponds to a change in lobbying behavior compared to historical lobbying patterns. It could indicate that it is a companies first lobbying contract, or a large contract compared to their historical average.
Wikipedia Search Interest
This model uses an algorithm to discover early search interest on Wikipedia pages. This signal is stronger than most retail indicators as it suggests the beginning of a research process. We deliver the 100 tickers with the largest and smallest predicted changes in search behaviour.
Interest in IMBI, based on Wikipedia searches, increased 32.57% this week, showing strong positive attention.
Meanwhile, RSKD experienced a significant decline of -26.80% in search interest, indicating reduced market attention.
Factor Model Coefficients
This analysis shows percentile rankings of factor model coefficients across stocks. Higher percentile coefficients indicate stronger factor sensitivity relative to peers. We deliver approximately 1000 tickers and their associated factor scores
Factor Model Error Analysis
Stocks with high R², negative AIC, and strong t-statistics provide reliable factor exposure for long-term systematic investing, while those with lower statistical significance and model fit offer alpha potential through market inefficiencies but demand sophisticated trading strategies.
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